Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis

Autor: Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari, Nicolas Pecastaing, Jean-Marc Montaud
Přispěvatelé: Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques (CATT), Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
Computable general equilibrium
Economics and Econometrics
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
General equilibrium theory
Microsimulation
Climate change
01 natural sciences
Agricultural economics
Climate change and variability
0502 economics and business
Economics
Niger
050207 economics
Poverty
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
2. Zero hunger
Food security
business.industry
Crop yield
fungi
05 social sciences
1. No poverty
Agriculture
JEL: O - Economic Development
Innovation
Technological Change
and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O13 - Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products
JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
General equilibrium
13. Climate action
business
Zdroj: Economic Modelling
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, 2017, 63, pp.128-142. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.005⟩
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.005
Popis: International audience; This study explores the potential economic and social effects induced by a possible future deterioration of weather conditions on Niger's agriculture. Our scenarios over a 25 year period rely on both long term climate change deterministic features and climate variability stochastic features which take into account a higher than normal frequency of severe droughts. Using a microsimulated Dynamic Recursive Computable General Equilibrium model, we show how a long run mean decrease in main crop yields could adversely affect growth, poverty and food security in the country and how more severe drought would worsen these negative effects. However, we also show that there would appear to be some room for manœuvre for coping strategies for Niger such as improving the rural road network, adopting modern crop varieties or, to a lesser extent, extending irrigation capacity.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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