Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm in 180 Pancreatic Resection Patients at 3 High-Volume Centers
| Autor: | Seiko Hirono, Akio Yanagisawa, Hiroki Yamaue, Yukihide Kanemitsu, Yoshiki Senda, Tsuyoshi Sano, Hiroyuki Maguchi, Kenji Yamao, Manabu Osanai, Susumu Hijioka, Yasuhiro Shimizu, Vikram Bhatia |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty endocrine system diseases Endocrinology Diabetes and Metabolism medicine.medical_treatment Malignancy Gastroenterology Decision Support Techniques Endosonography Pancreatectomy Sex Factors Endocrinology Japan Pancreatic Juice Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine Internal Medicine medicine Carcinoma Humans Aged Probability Hepatology Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm Receiver operating characteristic business.industry Reproducibility of Results Middle Aged Nomogram medicine.disease Carcinoma Papillary Pancreatic Neoplasms Nomograms ROC Curve Area Under Curve Predictive value of tests Pancreatic juice Female Neoplasms Cystic Mucinous and Serous Tomography X-Ray Computed business Hospitals High-Volume Carcinoma Pancreatic Ductal |
| Zdroj: | Pancreas. 44:459-464 |
| ISSN: | 0885-3177 |
| Popis: | Objective We previously published a nomogram for prediction of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). The objective of the current study was to validate this nomogram in an external cohort of patients at multiple institutions. Methods The clinical details of 180 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection at 3 hospitals were collected. Four significant predictive factors (sex, lesion type, nodule height, and pancreatic juice cytology) were analyzed. Results Of the 180 patients, 66 (36.7%) had a main pancreatic duct-type IPMN and 114 (63.3%) had a branch pancreatic duct-type IPMN. The final pathological diagnosis was benign IPMN in 95 (52.8%) patients and malignant IPMN in 85 (47.2%) patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.760. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the IPMN nomogram for prediction of malignancy was 0.747 in main pancreatic duct-type IPMN and 0.752 in branch pancreatic duct-type IPMN. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 80.0% and 57.9%, respectively, when the predictive probability of more than 10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions This nomogram for predicting the probability of carcinoma in patients with IPMN was accurate in an external validation patient cohort. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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