Long-term sizing of rural microgrids: Accounting for load evolution through multi-step investment plan and stochastic optimization
| Autor: | Nicolò Stevanato, Emanuela Colombo, Sergio Balderrama, Lorenzo Rinaldi, Sylvain Quoilin, Giulia Guidicini, Francesco Lombardi, Matija Pavičević |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Microgrid
Computer science Microgrid Off-grid Rural electrification Load evolution Multi-step investment Geography Planning and Development 0211 other engineering and technologies Time horizon Accounting 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law 01 natural sciences Net present value 021108 energy Rural electrification 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry Grid Sizing Off-grid Investment decisions Load evolution Stochastic optimization business Multi-step investment |
| Popis: | Hybrid microgrids represent a cost-effective and viable option to ensure access to energy in rural areas located far from the main grid. Nonetheless, the sizing of rural microgrids is complicated by the lack of models capable of accounting for the evolution of the energy demand over time, which is likely to occur in such contexts as a result of the modification of users' lifestyles. To tackle this issue, the present study aims at developing a novel, long-term optimisation model formulation, capable of accounting for load evolution and performing suitable investment decisions for capacity expansion along the time horizon. Multiple scenarios of load evolution are considered to evaluate the beneficial effects of this novel approach, through the coupling of the model with a tool for stochastic load profiles generation. The results show how this implementation brings lower Net Present Cost to the project and improved correspondence between actual electricity demand and microgrid sizing. Finally, a sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of the approach with respect to input data variability and the Loss of Load parameter. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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