A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms

Autor: Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Lee Hsiang Liow, Fabio Vittorio De Blasio, Tore Schweder
Přispěvatelé: De Blasio, F, Liow, L, Schweder, T, De Blasio, B
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Statistics and Probability
Competitive Behavior
Geological Phenomena
Internationality
Time Factors
Extinction probability
Climate
Climate Change
media_common.quotation_subject
Population
Oxygen Isotopes
Biology
Macroevolution
Generalist and specialist species
Modelling
General Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology

Competition (biology)
Species Specificity
Modelling and Simulation
Immunology and Microbiology(all)
education
media_common
Medicine(all)
Abiotic component
education.field_of_study
Extinction
Competition
Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
General Immunology and Microbiology
Cenozoic
Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)

Ecology
Applied Mathematics
Temperature
Biodiversity
General Medicine
Models
Theoretical

Plankton
Modeling and Simulation
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Zdroj: Journal of Theoretical Biology. 365:445-456
ISSN: 0022-5193
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.10.031
Popis: There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth’s oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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