Can healthcare choice be predicted using stated preference data? The role of model complexity in a discrete choice experiment about colorectal cancer screening

Autor: Samare P.I. Huls, Esther W. de Bekker-Grob
Přispěvatelé: Health Technology Assessment (HTA)
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Social Science and Medicine, 315:115530. Elsevier Ltd.
ISSN: 1873-5347
0277-9536
Popis: Introduction: The validity of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) is crucial to its usage in healthcare decision-making, but there is only a limited number of health contexts in which external validity is demonstrated. This study aims to assess the internal and external validity of the DCE in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, and gather insights into the discrepancy between stated and revealed preferences. Methods: Stated and revealed preferences were elicited on an individual level from Dutch residents eligible for CRC screening in a DCE and a field experiment, respectively (N = 568). To identify the determinants of CRC screening participation and their relative importance, five random utility maximisation models that varied in complexity were used. We assessed the accuracy with which the models based on stated preferences predict individual-level screening choice in a holdout task (internal validity) and in the actual screening choice (external validity). Insights into the discrepancy between stated and revealed preferences were gathered by comparing groups of respondents. Results: Our findings show high internal and external validity. Choices could be accurately predicted for 95% of the respondents in the holdout task, and 90% in the actual screening choice. When scale and preference heterogeneity were taken into account model fit improved; individual-level prediction accuracy slightly increased for the holdout task but not for the actual screening choice. Respondents for whom stated preferences matched revealed preferences were generally in better health and found the GP's support for their screening decision more important. Discussion: Evidence was found that revealed preferences can be predicted accurately on an individual level. Incorporating heterogeneity improved internal validity but not external validity. Differences between stated and revealed preferences can be attributed to respondents’ health and the support of their GP. We suggest researchers to continue investigating the internal and external validity of discrete choice experiments, and the role of model complexity.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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