Modelling the Effect of Vaccination Program and Inter-state Travel in the Spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Autor:	Muhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz, Ahmad Dzulhilmi Ahmad Safaruddin, Nor Aishah Hamzah, Siti Suzlin Supadi, Zhou Yuhao, Muhamad Afiq Aziz
Rok vydání:	2021
Předmět:	Philosophy Travel Applied Mathematics Vaccination Malaysia Animals COVID-19 General Medicine General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Epidemics General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology General Environmental Science
Zdroj:	Acta biotheoretica. 71(1)
ISSN:	1572-8358
Popis:	A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder-Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::cdeb0141a8552413807c702340c0d106 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36394646 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full text from SpringerLink