| Autor: |
Saeed Golian, Conor Murphy, Robert L. Wilby, Tom Matthews, Seán Donegan, Dáire Foran Quinn, Shaun Harrigan |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 42(11) |
| ISSN: |
0899-8418 |
| Popis: |
Seasonal precipitation forecasting is highly challenging for the northwest fringes of Europe due to complex dynamical drivers. Hybrid dynamical-statistical approaches offer potential to improve forecast skill. Here, hindcasts of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from two dynamical systems (GloSea5 and SEAS5) are used to derive two distinct sets of indices for forecasting winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) precipitation over lead-times of 1-4 months. These indices provide predictors of seasonal precipitation via a multiple linear regression model (MLR) and an artificial neural network (ANN) applied to four Irish rainfall regions and the Island of Ireland. Forecast skill for each model, lead time, and region was evaluated using the correlation coefficient ( |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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