Effect of evacuation of Japanese residents from Wuhan, China, on preventing transmission of novel coronavirus infection: A modelling study
| Autor: | Shinya Tsuzuki, Satoshi Kutsuna, Kayoko Hayakawa, Yusuke Asai, Norio Ohmagari |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Microbiology (medical)
China 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak medicine.medical_specialty Aircraft Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) medicine.disease_cause Disease Outbreaks law.invention Mathematical model Japan law Environmental health Epidemiology medicine Humans Pharmacology (medical) Asymptomatic Infections Coronavirus Travel SARS-CoV-2 business.industry Transmission (medicine) Pharmacology. Therapy COVID-19 Outbreak Models Theoretical Transmission (mechanics) Countermeasure Infectious Diseases Communicable Disease Control Original Article Human medicine business Evacuation |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy Journal of infection and chemotherapy |
| ISSN: | 1341-321X |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jiac.2020.12.011 |
| Popis: | Introduction: In late January 2020, the Japanese government carried out three evacuations by aircraft from Wuhan, China, to avoid further cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among Wuhan's Japanese residents. Evacuation by aircraft may be an effective countermeasure against outbreaks of infectious diseases, but evidence of its effect is scarce. This study estimated how many COVID-19 cases were prevented among the Japanese residents of Wuhan by the evacuation countermeasure. Methods: We constructed a SETAIR (susceptible-exposed-transitional-asymptomatic-infectious-recovered) model to capture the epidemic growth of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan to estimate the predicted number of COVID-19 cases among Wuhan's Japanese residents if evacuation had not occurred at the end of January. We used data on the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hubei Province for the period Jan 20-Feb 16, 2020, and on the number of cases of Japanese residents who were evacuated by aircraft on Jan 29, 30, and 31. Results: Eleven imported COVID-19 cases were reported on Feb 1 from among the total 566 evacuees who returned to Japan. In the case of no evacuations being made, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases among Wuhan's Japanese residents was estimated to reach 25 (95% CI [20,29]) on Feb 8 and 34 (95% CI [28,40]) on Feb 15. A 1-week delay in the evacuation might be led to 14 additional cases and a 2-week delay to 23 additional cases. Conclusions: Evacuation by aircraft can contribute substantially to reducing the number of infected cases in the initial stage of the outbreak. (C) 2020 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect