Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing

Autor: Seth Flaxman, Tawanda Dadirai, Timothy M. Wolock, Kathryn Risher, Simon Gregson, Jeffrey W. Eaton
Přispěvatelé: National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council (MRC), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
FOS: Computer and information sciences
Male
Sexually transmitted disease
Sexual partner
global health
0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology
01 natural sciences
010104 statistics & probability
0302 clinical medicine
030212 general & internal medicine
Biology (General)
bayesian statistics
General Neuroscience
Age Factors
sexual behaviour
General Medicine
Middle Aged
Outcome (probability)
Regression
Bayesian statistics
Sexual Partners
stat.ME
Medicine
Probability distribution
epidemiology
Female
Psychology
Research Article
Adult
distributional regression
QH301-705.5
Science
Sexual Behavior
Statistics - Applications
General Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology
Sexual partnership
Methodology (stat.ME)
Young Adult
03 medical and health sciences
None
Humans
Applications (stat.AP)
0101 mathematics
stat.AP
sinh-arcsinh distribution
Statistics - Methodology
Models
Statistical
General Immunology and Microbiology
age mixing
Statistical model
Epidemiology and Global Health
Self Report
Demography
Zdroj: eLife
eLife, Vol 10 (2021)
ISSN: 2050-084X
DOI: 10.7554/elife.68318
Popis: The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the distribution of sexual partner ages over age and sex. We identified which probability distributions and outcome specifications best captured variation in partner age and quantified the benefits of modelling these data using distributional regression. We found that distributional regression with a sinh-arcsinh distribution replicated observed partner age distributions most accurately across three geographically diverse data sets. This framework can be extended with well-known hierarchical modelling tools and can help improve estimates of sexual age-mixing dynamics.
Main text: 25 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables; Appendix: 24 pages, 11 figures, 10 tables; Submitted to eLife
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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