Quantitative analysis of the probability of introducing equine encephalosis virus (EEV) into The Netherlands
| Autor: | Evelyn Pamela Martínez López, Céline Faverjon, Clazien J. de Vos, Egil A.J. Fischer |
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| Přispěvatelé: | LS GZ Landbouwhuisdieren, dFAH I&I, Central Veterinary Institute, Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Universidad Central del Ecuador (UCE), Unité de Recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UR EpiA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University of Bern, EMIDA ERA-NET through the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (Project nr. BO-20-009-009) in the VICE project., European Project: 219235,EC:FP7:KBBE,FP7-ERANET-2007-RTD,EMIDA(2008) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Veterinary medicine
040301 veterinary sciences Epidemiology Bioinformatica & Diermodellen Transmission pattern [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Import risk assessment 030231 tropical medicine African Horse Sickness Virus Equines law.invention Diagnostics & Crisis Organization 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Food Animals law Risk Factors Establishment Bio-informatics & Animal models Animals Epidemiology Bio-informatics & Animal models Equestrian horses Horses Orbivirus Netherlands Probability Equine encephalosis virus Epidemiologie biology Diagnostiek & Crisisorganisatie Outbreak Culicoides 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences biology.organism_classification Virology Reoviridae Infections Transmission (mechanics) Vector-borne Epidemiologie Bioinformatica & Diermodellen Release African horse sickness Animal Science and Zoology Horse Diseases Risk assessment |
| Zdroj: | Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 131, 48. Elsevier Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 131, 48-59 Preventive Veterinary Medicine Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Elsevier, 2016, 131, pp.48-59. ⟨10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.07.005⟩ Preventive Veterinary Medicine 131 (2016) |
| ISSN: | 0167-5877 |
| Popis: | International audience; Equine encephalosis is a midge-borne viral disease of equines caused by equine encephalosis virus (EEV, Orbivirus, Reoviridae), and closely related to African horse sickness virus (AHSV). EEV and AHSV share com- mon vectors and show similar transmission patterns. Until now EEV has caused outbreaks in Africa and Israel. This study aimed to provide insight in the probability of an EEV outbreak in The Netherlands caused by infected vectors or hosts, the contribution of potential source areas (risk regions) to this probability, and the effectiveness of preventive measures (sanitary regimes). A stochastic risk model constructed for risk assessment of AHSV introduction was adapted to EEV. Source areas were categorized in risk regions (high, low, and very low risk) based on EEV history and the presence of competent vectors. Two possible EEV introduction pathways were considered: importation of infected equines and importation of infected vectors along with their vertebrate hosts. The probability of EEV introduction (PEEV ) was calculated by combining the probability of EEV release by either pathway and the probability of EEV establishment. The median current annual probability of EEV introduction by an infected equine was estimated at 0.012 (90% uncertainty interval 0.002–0.020), and by an infected vector at 4.0 10−5 (90% uncertainty interval 5.3 10−6–2.0 10−4). Equines from high risk regions contributed most to the probability of EEV introduction with 74% on the EEV introduction by equines, whereas low and very low risk regions contributed 18% and 8%, respectively. International movements of horses participating in equestrian events contributed most to the probability of EEV introduction by equines from high risk regions (86%), but also contributed substantially for low and very low risk regions with 47% and 56%. The probability of introducing EEV into The Netherlands is much higher than the probability of intro- ducing AHSV with equines from high risk countries contributing most. The introduction by an infected equine is the most likely pathway. Control measures before exportation of equines showed to have a strong mitigating effect on the probability of EEV introduction. The risk of EEV outbreaks should be taken into account when altering these import regulations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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