Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival after curative resection of nonmetastatic colorectal cancer

Autor: Ying Zhang, Tingting Hong, Xiaohong Wu, Linfang Jin, Dong Hua, Ting-Xun Lu, Dongyan Cai
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
0301 basic medicine
Curative resection
Male
Cancer Research
genetic structures
Colorectal cancer
urologic and male genital diseases
nonmetastatic colorectal cancer
0302 clinical medicine
Carcinoembryonic antigen
Prospective cohort study
Original Research
Aged
80 and over

biology
Middle Aged
lcsh:Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens
Prognosis
Survival Rate
Oncology
030220 oncology & carcinogenesis
Female
Radiology
Colorectal Neoplasms
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
overall survival
Recursive partitioning
lcsh:RC254-282
nomogram
03 medical and health sciences
Young Adult
medicine
Humans
Radiology
Nuclear Medicine and imaging

Aged
Retrospective Studies
Receiver operating characteristic
business.industry
curative resection
Clinical Cancer Research
Retrospective cohort study
Nomogram
medicine.disease
Nomograms
030104 developmental biology
ROC Curve
biology.protein
business
Colorectal Surgery
Follow-Up Studies
Zdroj: Cancer Medicine
Cancer Medicine, Vol 9, Iss 12, Pp 4126-4136 (2020)
ISSN: 2045-7634
Popis: Background We aimed to develop a clinical applicable nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) for patients with curatively resected nonmetastatic colorectal cancer. Methods Records from a retrospective cohort of 846 patients with complete information were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was validated in a prospective cohort of 379 patients. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with concordance index (c‐index), time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses for discrimination, accuracy, calibration ability, and clinical net benefits respectively, and further compared with AJCC 8th TNM staging and the MSKCC nomogram. Risk stratification based on nomogram scores was performed with recursive partitioning analysis. Results The nomogram incorporated age, Glasgow prognostic score, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen levels, T staging, N staging, number of harvested lymph nodes, and histological grade. Compared with the 8th AJCC staging and MSKCC model, the nomogram had a statistically higher c‐index (0.77, 95% CI: 0.73‐0.80), bigger areas under the time‐dependent ROC curves (AUC at 3 years: 79; at 5 years: 79), and improved clinical net benefits. Calibration plots revealed no deviations from reference lines. All results were reproducible in the validation cohort. Nomogram‐based risk stratification successfully discriminated patients within each AJCC stage (all log‐rank P
We developed and validated a prognostic nomogram for non‐metastatic colorectal cancer incorporating routinely available factors. Nomogram based risk stratification successfully discriminated patients within each AJCC stage. The nomogram outperformed the 8th AJCC staging and the MSKCC model.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Pro tento záznam nejsou dostupné žádné jednotky.