Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic: A decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years
| Autor: | Flavia Bernini, Massimo Ciccozzi, Massimo Galli, Gianguglielmo Zehender, Giovanni Rezza, Mauro Delogu, Maria Grazia Cusi |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Zehender g., Bernini F., Delogu M., Cusi M.G., Rezza G., Galli M., Ciccozzi M. |
| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Předmět: |
BAYESIAN SKYLINE PLOT INFERENCE
Microbiology (medical) Demographic history MENINGITIS Population TOSCANA VIRUS Genome Viral Microbiology Evolution Molecular symbols.namesake Genetics medicine Animals Humans Meningitis Aseptic SANDFLY FEVER VIRUS education Molecular clock Molecular Biology Phylogeny Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematics education.field_of_study biology Sequence Analysis RNA Toscana virus Aseptic meningitis Bayes Theorem Sandfly fever Naples virus Markov chain Monte Carlo FLAVIVIRIDAE medicine.disease biology.organism_classification Virology Markov Chains Phlebotomus Fever Infectious Diseases Phlebovirus Phlebotomus Vector (epidemiology) symbols Monte Carlo Method Sequence Alignment Demography |
| Zdroj: | Università degli Studi di Siena-IRIS |
| ISSN: | 1567-1348 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.meegid.2009.02.007 |
| Popis: | Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 × 10−4 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31–5.44 × 10−4 subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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