Risk Diagrams Based on Primary Care Electronic Medical Records and Linked Real-Time PCR Data to Monitor Local COVID-19 Outbreaks During the Summer 2020: A Prospective Study Including 7,671,862 People in Catalonia
| Autor: | Marti Catala, Ermengol Coma, Sergio Alonso, Enrique Álvarez-Lacalle, Silvia Cordomi, Daniel López, Francesc Fina, Manuel Medina-Peralta, Clara Prats, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Física Computacional i Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. BIOCOM-SC - Grup de Biologia Computacional i Sistemes Complexos |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Population 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction COVID-19 (Malaltia) Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine COVID-19 (Disease) Interquartile range Intensive care Outbreak detection Medicine Electronic Health Records Humans Cumulative incidence 030212 general & internal medicine Prospective Studies sentinel Prospective cohort study education Sentinel Original Research education.field_of_study Public health Surveillance Primary Health Care business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Medical record public health Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health COVID-19 Salut pública Confidence interval Spain Cohort Emergency medicine Ciències de la salut::Medicina::Medicina comunitària i salut pública [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] surveillance outbreak detection Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 business |
| Zdroj: | Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 9 (2021) Frontiers in Public Health r-IGTP. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Germans Trias i Pujol instname UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| ISSN: | 2296-2565 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2021.693956 |
| Popis: | Monitoring transmission is a prerequisite for containing COVID-19. We report on effective potential growth (EPG) as a novel measure for the early identification of local outbreaks based on primary care electronic medical records (EMR) and PCR-confirmed cases. Secondly, we studied whether increasing EPG precedes local hospital and intensive care (ICU) admissions and mortality. Population-based cohort including all Catalan citizens’ PCR tests, hospitalization, intensive care (ICU) and mortality between 1/07/2020 and 13/09/2020; linked EMR covering 88.6% of the Catalan population was obtained. Nursing home residents were excluded. COVID-19 counts were ascertained based on EMR and PCRs separately. Weekly empirical propagation (¿7) and 14-day cumulative incidence (A14) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated at care management area (CMA) level, and combined as EPG = ¿7 × A14. Overall, 7,607,201 and 6,798,994 people in 43 CMAs were included for PCR and EMR measures, respectively. A14, ¿7, and EPG increased in numerous CMAs during summer 2020. EMR identified 2.70-fold more cases than PCRs, with similar trends, a median (interquartile range) 2 (1) days earlier, and better precision. Upticks in EPG preceded increases in local hospital admissions, ICU occupancy, and mortality. Increasing EPG identified localized outbreaks in Catalonia, and preceded local hospital and ICU admissions and subsequent mortality. EMRs provided similar estimates to PCR, but some days earlier and with better precision. EPG is a useful tool for the monitoring of community transmission and for the early identification of COVID-19 local outbreaks. Peer Reviewed Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i Benestar Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i Benestar::3.3 - Per a 2030, posar fi a les epidèmies de la sida, tuberculosi, malària i les malalties tropicals desateses, i combatre l’hepatitis, les malalties transmeses per l’aigua i altres malalties transmissibles |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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