Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation

Autor: Minh Truong Ha, S. Bastin, P. Drobinski, L. Fita, J. Polcher, O. Bock, M. Chiriaco, D. Belušić, C. Caillaud, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, K. Goergen, Ø. Hodnebrog, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, A. Lavin-Gullon, T. Lorenz, J. Milovac, H.-J. Panitz, S. Sobolowski, H. Truhetz, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SPACE - LATMOS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Department of Geophysics [Zagreb], Faculty of Science [Zagreb], University of Zagreb-University of Zagreb, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics, In press, ⟨10.1007/s00382-022-06594-6⟩
ISSN: 0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06594-6⟩
Popis: Recent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional Climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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