Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 in south-west France 2016-2017: A modeling study of control strategies
| Autor: | Sophie Lebouquin-Leneveu, Aurélie Courcoul, Axelle Scoizec, Anne Bronner, Claire Guinat, Benoit Durand, Mathilde Paul, Simon Cauchemez, Alessio Andronico |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratory for Animal Health, ANSES, Laboratoire de Santé Animale, Université Paris-Est (UPE)-Université Paris-Est (UPE), Direction Générale de l'Alimentation (DGAL), Ministère de l'agriculture, de l'agroalimentaire et de la forêt, Laboratoire de Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort [ANSES], Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES), Interactions hôtes-agents pathogènes [Toulouse] (IHAP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse (ENVT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, This study was supported by the Laboratory of Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IBEID, Grant ANR-10-LABX-0062), NIGMH MIDAS initiative, the AXA Research Fund, and the INCEPTION project (Grant ANR-16-CONV-0005)., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de santé animale, sites de Maisons-Alfort et de Normandie, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT) |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Highly pathogenic avian influenza
highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 Control strategies Spatial Epidemiology Farms Epidemiology Highly pathogenic [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] animal diseases 030231 tropical medicine Culling medicine.disease_cause Microbiology lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases law.invention Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law Virology medicine media_common.cataloged_instance Animals lcsh:RC109-216 Influenza A Virus H5N8 Subtype 030212 general & internal medicine European union Socioeconomics Poultry Diseases media_common Member states Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Outbreak Spatial epidemiology Models Theoretical Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 3. Good health Infectious Diseases Geography Transmission (mechanics) Ducks Influenza in Birds Parasitology France Seasons |
| Zdroj: | Epidemics, 28 Epidemics Epidemics, Elsevier, 2019, 28, pp.100340. ⟨10.1016/j.epidem.2019.03.006⟩ Epidemics, 2019, 28, pp.100340. ⟨10.1016/j.epidem.2019.03.006⟩ Epidemics, Vol 28, Iss, Pp-(2019) |
| ISSN: | 1878-0067 1755-4365 |
| Popis: | In the winter 2016–2017 the largest epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) ever recorded in the European Union spread to all 28 member states. France was hit particularly hard and reported a total of 484 infected premises (IPs) by March 2017. We developed a mathematical model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and evaluate the impact of control strategies. We estimated that farms rearing ducks were on average 2.5 times more infectious and 5.0 times more susceptible to HPAI than farms rearing other avian species. The implementation of surveillance zones around IPs reduced transmission by a factor of 1.8 on average. Compared to the strengthening of pre-emptive culling measures enforced by French authorities in February 2017, we found that a faster depopulation of diagnosed IPs would have had a larger impact on the total number of infections. For example, halving the time delay from detection to slaughter of infected animals would have reduced the total number of IPs by 52% and total cull numbers by 50% on average. This study showcases the possible contribution of modeling to inform and optimize control strategies during an outbreak. Keywords: Highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N8, Control strategies, Spatial epidemiology |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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