Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Autor: J. Körper, Elisa Manzini, Sébastien Denvil, Michael G. Sanderson, Jean-François Royer, I. Höschel, Marco Giorgetta, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, D. Salas y Melia, Jean-Louis Dufresne, H. Huebener, T. C. Johns, Odd Helge Otterå, Jerry Tjiputra, Erich Roeckner
Přispěvatelé: Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, Rheingaustraße 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom, Institut für Meteorologie [Berlin], Freie Universität Berlin, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] (NERSC), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Uni Research Climate, Uni Research Ltd, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
Zdroj: Climatic Change
Climatic Change, Springer Verlag, 2013, 120 (1-2), pp.389-403. ⟨10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x⟩
Climatic Change, 2013, 120 (1-2), pp.389-403. ⟨10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x⟩
ISSN: 0165-0009
1573-1480
Popis: International audience; Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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