Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends
| Autor: | Yi Xu, Guoqi Li, Nan Hu, Guangshe Zhao, Christopher Monterola, Daxuan Zhao, Shyh-hao Kuo, Hai-Yan Xu |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Gao, Zhong-Ke, School of Computer Engineering |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Computer Science and Engineering
Entropy Population Dynamics Population lcsh:Medicine Population based Statistics Humans Entropy (information theory) Computer Simulation education lcsh:Science Mathematics Family Characteristics education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary Family characteristics lcsh:R Models Theoretical United States Constrained optimization problem Population model Age distribution lcsh:Q Real world data Algorithms Research Article |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 9, p e0137324 (2015) PLoS ONE |
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
| Popis: | In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country’s population based on an “age-structured population model”; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an “individual household size model”; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a “total household size model”. The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country’s population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. ASTAR (Agency for Sci., Tech. and Research, S’pore) Published version |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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