Weekly fluctuations in risk tolerance and voting behaviour

Autor: Rob Jenkins, Jet Gabrielle Gabrielle Sanders
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
Male
Time Factors
Economics
Social Sciences
lcsh:Medicine
050109 social psychology
Surveys
Elections
Geographical locations
Governments
Cognition
Independence referendum
Risk Factors
Voting
Referendum
Medicine and Health Sciences
lcsh:Science
media_common
Multidisciplinary
Politics
05 social sciences
Europe
Research Design
Female
Psychology
Research Article
Political Parties
Adult
Adolescent
Political Science
media_common.quotation_subject
Decision Making
Research and Analysis Methods
050105 experimental psychology
Health Economics
Thursday
Humans
media_common.cataloged_instance
0501 psychology and cognitive sciences
European union
Social Behavior
Behavior
Survey Research
lcsh:R
Biology and Life Sciences
Models
Theoretical
United Kingdom
Health Care
Cognitive Science
lcsh:Q
Demographic economics
People and places
Neuroscience
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0159017 (2016)
PLoS ONE
Popis: Risk tolerance is fundamental to decision-making and behaviour. Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday-the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: