IS THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH AN ILLUSION? EVIDENCES FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS

Autor: Ertuğrul Yildirim
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Zdroj: Volume:, Issue: 15 21-40
Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi
ISSN: 1307-9832
1307-9859
Popis: İhracata-dayalı büyüme hipotezi teorik ve ampirik düzeyde tartışılmaya devam etmektedir. Literatürdeki pek çok çalışma ihracata-dayalı büyüme hipotezini, simetrik Granger nedensellik testlerini kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise hem simetrik hem de asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmaktadır. Analiz Türkiye’nin 1997:1-2013:4 dönemine ait ithalat, ihracat ve sanayi üretimi değişkenlerini kapsamaktadır. Ulaşılan bulgulara göre üç değişken arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri asimetriktir. Bu nedenle simetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılan çalışmalarda ulaşılan sonuçlar illüzyon olabilir. Ayrıca elde edilen bulgular ihracatın ve sanayi üretiminin ithalata bağımlı olması nedeniyle ihracatın sürdürülebilir bir biçimde büyümeyi artıramadığını göstermektedir. Yani bu çalışmada uzun dönemde Türkiye’de ihracata-dayalı büyüme hipotezi desteklenememiştir. Bu çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de ihracata-dayalı büyüme hipotezinin gerçekleşebilmesi için ithalata bağlı üretim ve ihracat yapısının kırılması gerektiğini ima etmektedir.Anahtar Kavramlar: İhracata-dayalı büyüme hipotezi, Thirlwall kanunu, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Sanayi Üretimi.JEL Sınıflandırması: F14, F43IS THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH AN ILLUSION? EVIDENCES FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTSAbstractExport-led growth hypothesis has been discussed in theoretical and empirical levels. Lots of studies in the literature analyze the export-led growth hypothesis using symmetric Granger causality tests. However, both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests are used in this study. The analysis consists of imports, exports and industrial production variables of Turkey in the period of 1997:1-2013:4. To achieving findings, causal relations among the three variables are asymmetric. Therefore achieving findings in the paper which is using symmetric causality tests may be an illusion. Furthermore the findings indicate that exports did not raise the industrial production in a sustainable manner, since exports and production are dependent on imports. So the export-led growth hypothesis in long-term is not supported in this study. The findings achieving in this study imply that import dependent export and production structure should be break up to occur the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey.Keywords: Export-led growth hypothesis, Thirlwall law, Asymmetric causality, Industrial production.JEL Classification: F14, F43
Export-led growth hypothesis has been discussed in theoretical and empirical levels. Lots of studies in the literature analyze the export-led growth hypothesis using symmetric Granger causality tests. However, both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests are used in this study. The analysis consists of imports, exports and industrial production variables of Turkey in the period of 1997:1-2013:4. To achieving findings, causal relations among the three variables are asymmetric. Therefore achieving findings in the paper which is using symmetric causality tests may be an illusion. Furthermore the findings indicate that exports did not raise the industrial production in a sustainable manner, since exports and production are dependent on imports. So the export-led growth hypothesis in long-term is not supported in this study. The findings achieving in this study imply that import dependent export and production structure should be break up to occur the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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