SEIRD COVID-19 formal characterization and model comparison validation
| Autor: | Víctor García i Carrasco, Joan Garcia i Subirana, Pau Fonseca i Casas |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IMP - Information Modeling and Processing |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Decision support system
comparison with other models’ validation Matemàtiques i estadística::Investigació operativa::Programació matemàtica [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] Computer science Sequences (Mathematics) 02 engineering and technology SEIRD model computer.software_genre 01 natural sciences lcsh:Technology lcsh:Chemistry SDL 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Programació (Matemàtica) General Materials Science System dynamics model Empirical evidence Instrumentation lcsh:QH301-705.5 computer.programming_language Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes validation General Engineering Seqüències (Matemàtica) 92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general [Classificació AMS] lcsh:QC1-999 Computer Science Applications Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Data mining Biomatemàtica Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 90 Operations research mathematical programming::90C Mathematical programming [Classificació AMS] System Dynamics 0103 physical sciences 010306 general physics Implementation Biomathematics Programming (Mathematics) Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada::Estadística biosanitària [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] lcsh:T Process Chemistry and Technology COVID-19 Python (programming language) System dynamics Specification and Description Language lcsh:Biology (General) lcsh:QD1-999 lcsh:TA1-2040 62 Statistics::62L Sequential methods [Classificació AMS] lcsh:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) computer lcsh:Physics |
| Zdroj: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) Applied Sciences, Vol 10, Iss 5162, p 5162 (2020) Applied Sciences Volume 10 Issue 15 |
| Popis: | Based on a SEIRD model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infective, Recovered and Deceased) for COVID-19 infection with a new parametrization using a high infection rate, and a low fatality, we define the model in System Dynamics, Python, and Specification and Description Language (SDL). The different implementations obtained can be improved depending on the capabilities of the approach and, more interestingly, can be used to improve the Validation and Verification processes. In this paper, we are focused on describing how this comparison with other models&rsquo validation processes allows us to find the parameters of the system dynamics model, hence the parameters of the pandemic. This is a crucial element, specifically in this case, because the data are not complete or validated for different reasons. We use using existing data from Korea and Spain and showing that the proposed method and the obtained parametrization for the model fit with the empirical evidence. We discuss some implications of the validation process and the model parametrization. We use this approach to implement a Decision support system that shows the current pandemic situation in Catalonia. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|