Can the summer temperatures reduce COVID-19 cases?

Autor: M. S. Panwar, Chandi C. Mandal
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Public Health
ISSN: 1476-5616
Popis: Objective In spite of huge global, national and local preventive measures including travel restriction, social distancing and quarantines, outbreak of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 develops COVID-19 worldwide pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China took only three months to cover > 200 countries worldwide by infecting more than 2.4 million people and killing more than 150000 people. Though, this infection at the early stage creates seasonal flu-like symptoms with a higher illness, it eventually causes a higher mortality. Epidemiological studies not only find the causes of many health issues, but also suggest preventive measures. This study aimed to see the link between environment temperature and COVID-19 cases. Study design The monthly average environment temperature (MAET) and various COVID-19 cases of a country were collected, and analyzed to see the relationship between these parameters. Methods Univariate analysis and statistical modeling were used to determine the relationship between environment temperature and different COVID-19 cases. Results This study found that the majorities of the countries having higher COVID-19 cases are located in the higher latitude (colder region) in the globe. As of 20th April data available, statistical analyses by various methods have found that strong negative correlations with statistical significance exist between MAET and several COVID-19 cases including total cases, active cases and cases per million of a country [Spearman correlation coefficients were -0.45, -0.42, and -0.50 for total cases, active cases and cases/per million, respectively]. Analysis by statistical log-linear regression model further supports that the chance of COVID-19 patients is fewer in warmer countries than in colder countries. Conclusion This pilot study proposes that cold environment may be an additional risk factor for COVID-19 cases.
Highlights • The majority of the countries having higher COVID-19 cases were situated in the higher latitude/cold region. • Negative relationship exists between environment temperature and COVID-19 cases of the countries. • Log-linear regression model further supports that the chance of COVID-19 patients in warmer countries is fewer than in colder countries. • Cold environment may be an additional risk factor for corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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