Load predictions: vulnerability of micro‐grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand
| Autor: | Olga Weigel, Babak Ravanbach, Benedikt Hanke, Meike Kühnel, Alister McMaster, Sander Maebe, Ingo W. Stuermer, Karsten von Maydell |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry 020209 energy 020208 electrical & electronic engineering Population Vulnerability Capacity building Mini-Grid 02 engineering and technology Environmental economics Grid Energiesystemtechnologie Renewable energy Electrification load prediction and development 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Grid connection rural electrification Business hybrid power Generation education Efficient energy use |
| Zdroj: | IET Renewable Power Generation. 14:1312-1320 |
| ISSN: | 1752-1424 1752-1416 |
| DOI: | 10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0705 |
| Popis: | Small-scale systems are vulnerable to changes. The development of solution strategies for changing conditions should, therefore, be considered from the outset in planning. For planners and installers of mini-grids for rural villages without grid connection, first of all, the question of the expected electricity demand arises. So far, this is determined primarily by interviewing the population. However, studies have shown that there are still major differences between the power demand estimated and the real load after electrification. Reinforcing here is the inadequate assessment of load development through immigration and increased prosperity. On the basis of a currently developing mini-grid in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, we could show that a load increase of ~60% within 10 years is to be expected. The following possibilities were outlined as possible ways of counteracting the increase in load: (i) communicating with the population, i.e. on energy efficiency to raise awareness and understanding, (ii) early planning of capacity building and identification of key performance parameters to trigger the expansion based on local socio-cultural conditions and grid supporting qualities. An adequate database for the initial electrification and power development should also be established and available on open-source basis for researchers, developers, communities, and installers. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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