Dynamic evaluation and prediction of the ecological environment quality of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

Autor: Yan, Yibo, Chai, Ziyuan, Zibibula, Simayi, Yan, Haobo, Yang, Xiaodong, Yang, Shengtian
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 30:25817-25835
ISSN: 1614-7499
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-23794-z
Popis: In order to timely understand the dynamic changes of the ecological environment quality and future development laws of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, combined with the actual situation of the urban agglomeration, 11 indicators are selected from the three aspects of natural ecology, social ecology, and economic ecology. Based on RS and GIS technology methods, Principal component analysis, coefficient of variation and analytic hierarchy process are used to reduce the dimensions of the indicators, and the ecological environmental quality (EQI) from 2000 to 2018 is dynamically evaluated, and the CA-Markov model is introduced to simulate the development status in 2026 predict.The main results are as follows: the overall ecological environment of the area shows a gradually improving distribution change from southwest to northeast; the proportion of ecological environment classification shows a gradually decreasing change pattern; the spatial differentiation of ecological environment quality shows a significant spatial positive correlation; from the influencing factors It can be seen that natural ecological factors occupy a major position; the prediction accuracy verification shows that the CA-Markov model is suitable for the prediction of the ecological environment quality in the region and has high accuracy; the comprehensive regional ecological environment quality indexes are 5.7392, 6.1856 and 6.4366, respectively, and the forecast in 2026 The value is predicted to be 6.6285, indicating that the overall ecological environment quality of the region has been improved and developed well. The research reveals the law of dynamic changes and future development of the ecological environment quality in the region, which can be used as a theoretical reference for the formulation of ecological environmental protection measures in the region.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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