Volc2Clim: A webtool for fast estimation of the climate response to volcanic sulfur emissions from explosive eruptions
| Autor: | Schmidt, A., Aubry, T., Rigby, R., Stevenson, J., Loughlin, S. |
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| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| DOI: | 10.57757/iugg23-1563 |
| Popis: | During eruptive crises, questions on the potential climate response to an eruption rapidly emerge within scientific communities, stakeholders, and the public. However, rapid prediction of the climatic response is challenging because of: i) the uncertainties associated with near-real time satellite estimates of volcanic emissions; ii) the fact that most climate model simulations require detailed aerosol optical properties to be run; and iii) the significant computational costs of and uncertainties associated with climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosol capabilities, which only require estimates of the initial volcanic sulfur emissions. To address this challenge, we developed Volc2Clim (https://volc2clim.bgs.ac.uk/), a webtool predicting volcanic radiative forcing and climate response from volcanic sulfur emissions. Volc2Clim combines three simple published models:EVA_H, which predicts perturbations in aerosol optical properties, such as the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) for a given mass of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), injection altitude and injection latitude.A scaling factor that links the global-mean SAOD perturbation (at 550 nm) and the global-mean effective volcanic radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere.FaIR, a simple climate response model that calculates the global-mean surface temperature response based on the global-mean effective volcanic radiative forcing.Volc2Clim is computationally inexpensive and outputs both simple metrics and figures characterizing the radiative forcing and climate response, as well as full 4-dimensionnal fields of aerosol optical properties required to run climate models. We will showcase Volc2Clim’s main functionalities and discuss how well it performs for recent eruptions such as that of Raikoke in 2019. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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