Demonstration of pb-PSHA with Ras-Elhekma earthquake, Egypt
| Autor: | Elsayed Fergany, Lawrence Hutchings |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Peak ground acceleration
Seismic microzonation 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Ras-Elhekma earthquake lcsh:Astronomy Earthquake prediction lcsh:QC801-809 Astronomy and Astrophysics North Egypt 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Earthquake scenario lcsh:QB1-991 lcsh:Geophysics. Cosmic physics Geophysics Seismic hazard Earthquake simulation Strong ground motion Types of earthquake Urban seismic risk Physically-based simulation Geology Seismology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 41-51 (2017) |
| ISSN: | 2090-9977 |
| Popis: | The main goal of this work is to: (1) argue for the importance of a physically-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (pb-PSHA) methodology and show examples to support the argument from recent events, (2) demonstrate the methodology with the ground motion simulations of May 28, 1998, Mw = 5.5 Ras-Elhekma earthquake, north Egypt. The boundaries for the possible rupture parameters that may have been identified prior to the 1998 Ras-Elhekma earthquake were estimated. A range of simulated ground-motions for the Ras-Elhekma earthquake was “predicted” for frequency 0.5–25 Hz at three sites, where the large earthquake was recorded, with average epicentral distances of 220 km. The best rupture model of the 1998 Ras-Elhekma earthquake was identified by calculated the goodness of fit between observed and synthesized records at sites FYM, HAG, and KOT. We used the best rupture scenario of the 1998 earthquake to synthesize the ground motions at interested sites where the main shock was not recorded. Based on the good fit of simulated and observed seismograms, we concluded that this methodology can provide realistic ground motion of an earthquake and highly recommended for engineering purposes in advance or foregoing large earthquakes at non record sites. We propose that there is a need for this methodology for good-representing the true hazard with reducing uncertainties. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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