Optimal allocation of limited vaccine to minimize the effective reproduction number☆
| Autor: | Isabelle J. Rao, Margaret L. Brandeau |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Optimization 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Mathematical optimization COVID-19 Vaccines Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Computer science Vaccine allocation Reproduction (economics) Population Basic Reproduction Number Models Biological General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Humans Epidemic control education Letter to the Editor Aged education.field_of_study General Immunology and Microbiology Immunization Programs SARS-CoV-2 Applied Mathematics Health Policy Age Factors COVID-19 General Medicine Dynamic disease model Modeling and Simulation Optimal allocation General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Epidemic model Basic reproduction number |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Biosciences |
| ISSN: | 1879-3134 0025-5564 |
| Popis: | We examine the problem of allocating a limited supply of vaccine for controlling an infectious disease with the goal of minimizing the effective reproduction number Re. We consider an SIR model with two interacting populations and develop an analytical expression that the optimal vaccine allocation must satisfy. With limited vaccine supplies, we find that an all-or-nothing approach is optimal. For certain special cases, we determine the conditions under which the optimal Re is below 1. We present an example of vaccine allocation for COVID-19 and show that it is optimal to vaccinate younger individuals before older individuals to minimize Re if less than 59% of the population can be vaccinated. The analytical conditions we develop provide a simple means of determining the optimal allocation of vaccine between two population groups to minimize Re. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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