Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications
| Autor: | Sharon Kelley, David Thornton, James C. Mundt, R. Karl Hanson |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Criminal Psychology
Male Recidivism Sex Offenses Poison control Human factors and ergonomics Criminals Violence Suicide prevention Occupational safety and health Residual risk Psychiatry and Mental health Recurrence Risk Factors Injury prevention Humans Female Registries Psychology Sexual crime General Psychology Demography |
| Zdroj: | Sexual Abuse. 33:3-33 |
| ISSN: | 1573-286X 1079-0632 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/1079063219871573 |
| Popis: | Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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