Effect of population density on epidemics
| Autor: | Ruiqi Li, Peter Richmond, Bertrand M. Roehner |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), University College Dublin [Dublin] (UCD), Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Hautes Energies (LPTHE), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Physics - Physics and Society Population FOS: Physical sciences Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) 01 natural sciences Population density 010305 fluids & plasmas Kermack and McKendrick model propagation 0103 physical sciences Statistics Low density Physics - Biological Physics West coast population density Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution 010306 general physics education education.field_of_study Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) Key-words: epidemic Condensed Matter Physics [STAT]Statistics [stat] Variable (computer science) Geography Biological Physics (physics.bio-ph) FOS: Biological sciences [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie |
| Zdroj: | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, 2018, 510, pp.713-724 |
| ISSN: | 0378-4371 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.physa.2018.07.025 |
| Popis: | Investigations of a possible connection between population density and the propagation and magnitude of epidemics have so far led to mixed and unconvincing results. There are three reasons for that. (i) Previous studies did not focus on the appropriate density interval. (ii) For the density to be a meaningful variable the population must be distributed as uniformly as possible. If an area has towns and cities where a majority of the population is concentrated its average density is meaningless. (iii) In the propagation of an epidemic the initial proportion of susceptibles (that is to say persons who have not developed an immunity) is an essential, yet usually unknown, factor. The assumption that most of the population is susceptible holds only for new strain of diseases. It will be shown that when these requirements are taken care of, the size of epidemics is indeed closely connected with the population density. This empirical observation comes as a welcome confirmation of the classical KMK (Kermack-McKendrick 1927) model. Indeed, one of its key predictions is that the size of the epidemic increases strongly (and in a non linear way) with the initial density of susceptibles. An interesting consequence is that, contrary to common beliefs, in sparsely populated territories, like Alaska, Australia or the west coast of the United states the size of epidemics among native populations must have been limited by the low density even for diseases for which the natives had no immunity (i.e., were susceptibles). Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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