Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Autor: Wanmin Gong, Sangeeta Sharma, Fumikazu Taketani, Duncan Watson-Parris, Knut von Salzen, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons, Sujay Damani, Kostas Tsigaridis, Henrik Skov, Tatsuo Onishi, Jean-Christophe Raut, Sabine Eckhardt, Barbara Winter, Ulas Im, S. R. Beagley, Laura Saunders, Jesper H. Christensen, Joshua Fu, Lin Huang, Fabio Giardi, Yugo Kanaya, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Stephen R. Arnold, Srinath Krishnan, Naga Oshima, Minqi Wang, Mark Flanner, Julia Schmale, Yiran Peng, Rashed Mahmood, Gregory Faluvegi, Joakim Langner, Cynthia H. Whaley, Andreas Massling, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Luca Pozzoli, Michael Gauss, Vito Vitale, Steven Turnock, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Rong-You Chien, Maria Sand, Manu Anna Thomas, Silvia Becagli, Louis Marelle, Rita Traversi, Olga Popovicheva, Svetlana Tsyro, Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Hjorth, Thomas Kuhn, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Kathy S. Law
Přispěvatelé: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], European Project: iCUPE
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2022, pp.(Discussions). ⟨10.5194/acp-2021-975⟩
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2021, pp.(Discussions). ⟨10.5194/acp-2021-975⟩
ISSN: 1680-7367
1680-7375
1680-7324
Popis: The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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