Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region
| Autor: | Mushk Bughio, Soumia Lalouani born Bouzaher, Mohamed Elhadi Matallah, Waqas Ahmed Mahar, Djamel Alkama, Atef Ahriz |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Technology
Control and Optimization Index (economics) 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0211 other engineering and technologies Energy Engineering and Power Technology Climate change 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Extreme weather Urban climate Human settlement 021108 energy Electrical and Electronic Engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences residential sector IPCC scenarios algorithm desert region urban climate prediction Perceived Temperature Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Thermal comfort Livelihood Arid Climatology Environmental science Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Energies, Vol 14, Iss 4730, p 4730 (2021) Energies; Volume 14; Issue 16; Pages: 4730 |
| ISSN: | 1996-1073 |
| Popis: | Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It focuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities’ planning in the arid regions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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