A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation
| Autor: | Emmanuel Jesuyon Dansu, Hiromi Seno |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Statistics and Probability medicine.medical_specialty Reproduction (economics) Control (management) Basic Reproduction Number Epidemic dynamics Models Biological Article General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology 03 medical and health sciences Mathematical model 0302 clinical medicine Residence Characteristics Order (exchange) medicine Humans Sociology Epidemics Public health Actuarial science General Immunology and Microbiology Applied Mathematics Visitor pattern General Medicine Viewpoints 030104 developmental biology Modeling and Simulation General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Basic reproduction number Ordinary differential equations 030217 neurology & neurosurgery |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Theoretical Biology |
| ISSN: | 0022-5193 |
| Popis: | Highlights • With a model consisting of SIR and SIS models, we affirm claims in previous works. • We derive different basic reproduction numbers looking at varying perspectives. • We discuss the biological meanings of these basic reproduction numbers. • All the basic reproduction numbers coincide with respect to the critical condition. • Relevant public health policies are proposed based on our findings. With a five dimensional system of ordinary differential equations based on the SIR and SIS models, we consider the dynamics of epidemics in a community which consists of residents and short-stay visitors. Taking different viewpoints to consider public health policies to control the disease, we derive different basic reproduction numbers and clarify their common/different mathematical natures so as to understand their meanings in the dynamics of the epidemic. From our analyses, the short-stay visitor subpopulation could become significant in determining the fate of diseases in the community. Furthermore, our arguments demonstrate that it is necessary to choose one variant of basic reproduction number in order to formulate appropriate public health policies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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