Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Autor: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Přispěvatelé: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Assessments from the Russian ship-basedcampaign were performed with the support of RFBR projectno. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program ofthe Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V.Lomonosov Moscow State University 'Future Planet and GlobalEnvironmental Change'. Development of the methodology foraethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported bythe Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS)project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the SwedishEnvironmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program(SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board(NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grantagreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supportedby the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council ofCanada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from theSwiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478).Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projectsNE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as wellas funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research andinnovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curiegrant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported bythe EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understandingon Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443)under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet(ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCIallocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center(CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et laDynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supportedby the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI(grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), theEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund (grantnos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the ArcticChallenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grantno. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centrefor Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grantagreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency(grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish EnvironmentalProtection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project, grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand hasbeen supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT), ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017), European Project: iCUPE, European Project: 689443,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA-PLANET(2016), European Project: 315195,EC:FP7:SME,FP7-SME-2012,NANOFLOC(2013)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Whaley, C H, Mahmood, R, Von Salzen, K, Winter, B, Eckhardt, S, Arnold, S, Beagley, S, Becagli, S, Chien, R Y, Christensen, J, Damani, S M, Dong, X, Eleftheriadis, K, Evangeliou, N, Faluvegi, G, Flanner, M, Fu, J S, Gauss, M, Giardi, F, Gong, W, Hjorth, J L, Huang, L, Im, U, Kanaya, Y, Krishnan, S, Klimont, Z, Kühn, T, Langner, J, Law, K S, Marelle, L, Massling, A, Olivié, D, Onishi, T, Oshima, N, Peng, Y, Plummer, D A, Popovicheva, O, Pozzoli, L, Raut, J C, Sand, M, Saunders, L N, Schmale, J, Sharma, S, Skeie, R B, Skov, H, Taketani, F, Thomas, M A, Traversi, R, Tsigaridis, K, Tsyro, S, Turnock, S, Vitale, V, Walker, K A, Wang, M, Watson-Parris, D & Weiss-Gibbons, T 2022, ' Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme : A multi-species, multi-model study ', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 22, no. 9, pp. 5775-5828 . https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022, 22 (9), pp.5775-5828. ⟨10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022⟩
ISSN: 1680-7316
1680-7324
Popis: While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models. Assessments from the Russian ship-based campaign were performed with the support of RFBR project no. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “Future Planet and Global Environmental Change”. Development of the methodology for aethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20 and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program (SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board (NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon 2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grant agreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478). Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projects NE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as well as funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported by the EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet (ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCI allocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center (CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et la Dynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant nos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grant no. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grant agreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency (grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project; grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT). Peer Reviewed "Article signat per més de 50 autors/es: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons "
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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