Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening
| Autor: | Louro, Javier, Román, Marta, Posso, Margarita, Vázquez‐de las Heras, Ivonne, Saladié, Francina, Rodríguez Arana, Ana Maria, Quintana, María Jesús, Domingo Torrell, Laia, Baré, Marisa, Marcos-Gragera, Rafael, Vernet-Tomás, Maria, Sala, Maria, Castells, Xavier, BELE Study Group, IRIS Study Group |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Oncology
Epidemiology Physiology Biopsy Diagnostic Radiology Breast cancer screening 0302 clinical medicine Mathematical and Statistical Techniques Risk Factors Breast Tumors Cribatge (Medicina) Medicine and Health Sciences Breast -- Cancer 030212 general & internal medicine Family history Early Detection of Cancer education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary medicine.diagnostic_test Cancer Risk Factors Radiology and Imaging Hazard ratio Statistics Middle Aged 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Physical Sciences Medicine Benign Breast Conditions Female Breast disease Cancer Screening Research Article Mammography medicine.medical_specialty Medical screening Imaging Techniques Science Population Breast Neoplasms Research and Analysis Methods Models Biological Risk Assessment Calcification 03 medical and health sciences Breast cancer Diagnostic Medicine Internal medicine Breast Cancer medicine Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Humans Statistical Methods education Aged Proportional Hazards Models business.industry Cancers and Neoplasms Biology and Life Sciences Reproducibility of Results Retrospective cohort study medicine.disease ROC Curve Medical Risk Factors Mama -- Càncer Women's Health business Physiological Processes Mathematics Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE PLoS One r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau instname PLoS ONE, 2021, vol. 16, núm. 3, p. e0248930 Articles publicats (D-I) DUGiDocs – Universitat de Girona PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 3, p e0248930 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
| Popis: | BELE Study Group leaded by Xavier Castells are listed here in alphabetical order and grouped by institution: (a) IMIM (Hospital Del Mar Medical Research Institute), Barcelona, Spain: Andrea Burón, Xavier Castells, Merce Comas, Jose Maria Corominas, Javier Louro, Ana Rodríguez-Arana, Marta Román, Maria Sala, Sonia Servitja, Mar Vernet-Tomas; (b) Corporació Sanitària Parc Taulí, Sabadell, Spain: Marisa Baré, Nuria Tora; (c) Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain: Llucia Benito, Carmen Vidal (d) Hospital Santa Caterina, Girona, Spain: Joana Ferrer; (e) Catalan Institute of Oncology, Girona, Spain: Rafael Marcos-Gragera; (f) Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain: Judit Solà-Roca, María Jesús Quintana; (g) General Directorate of Public Health, Government of Cantabria, Spain: Mar Sánchez; (h) Principality of Astúrias Health Service, Spain: Miguel Prieto; (i) Fundació Lliga per a La Investigació i Prevenció Del Cáncer, Tarragona, Spain: Francina Saladié, Jaume Galceran; (j) Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Spain; Xavier Bargalló, Isabel Torá-Rocamora; (k) Vallés Oriental Breast Cancer Early Detection Program, Spain; Lupe Peñalva; (l) Catalonian Cancer Strategy, Barcelona, Spain: Josep Alfons Espinàs. IRIS Study Group leaded by Marta Román are listed here in alphabetical order and grouped by institution: (a) IMIM (Hospital Del Mar Medical Research Institute), Barcelona, Spain: Rodrigo Alcantara, Xavier Castells, Laia Domingo, Javier Louro, Margarita Posso, Maria Sala, Ignasi Tusquets, Ivonne Vazquez, Mar Vernet-Tomas; (b) Corporació Sanitària Parc Taulí, Sabadell, Spain: Marisa Baré, Javier del Riego; (c) Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain: Llucia Benito, Carmen Vidal (d) Hospital Santa Caterina, Girona, Spain: Joana Ferrer; (e) Catalan Institute of Oncology, Girona, Spain: Rafael Marcos-Gragera; (f) Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain: Judit Solà-Roca, María Jesús Quintana; (g) General Directorate of Public Health, Government of Cantabria, Spain: Mar Sánchez; (h) Principality of Astúrias Health Service, Spain: Miguel Prieto; (i) Fundació Lliga per a La Investigació i Prevenció Del Cáncer, Tarragona, Spain: Francina Saladié, Jaume Galceran; (j) Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Spain; Xavier Bargalló, Isabel Torá-Rocamora; (k) Vallés Oriental Breast Cancer Early Detection Program, Spain; Lupe Peñalva; (l) Catalonian Cancer Strategy, Barcelona, Spain: Josep Alfons Espinàs Background Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women’s individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening. Methods Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected. Conclusions We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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