The role of passing network indicators in modeling football outcomes: an application using Bayesian hierarchical models
Autor: | Lucio Palazzo, Aldo Gardini, Riccardo Ievoli |
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Přispěvatelé: | Ievoli, R., Gardini, A., Palazzo, L., Ievoli, Riccardo, Gardini, Aldo, Palazzo, Lucio |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2023 |
Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Economics and Econometrics Computer science Bayesian probability Football League Machine learning computer.software_genre 01 natural sciences Outcome (game theory) Network intensity NO Poisson regression 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Covariate 0101 mathematics UEFA Champions League Regularized horseshoe prior business.industry Applied Mathematics Offensive 030229 sport sciences Skellam distribution Modeling and Simulation Artificial intelligence business computer Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Analysis Network intensity Poisson regression Regularized horseshoe prior Skellam distribution UEFA Champions League |
Popis: | Passes are undoubtedly the more frequent events in football and other team sports. Passing networks and their structural features can be useful to evaluate the style of play in terms of passing behavior, analyzing and quantifying interactions among players. The present paper aims to show how information retrieved from passing networks can have a relevant impact on predicting the match outcome. In particular, we focus on modeling both the scored goals by two competing teams and the goal difference between them. With this purpose, we fit these outcomes using Bayesian hierarchical models, including both in-match and network-based covariates to cover many aspects of the offensive actions on the pitch. Furthermore, we review and compare different approaches to include covariates in modeling football outcomes. The presented methodology is applied to a real dataset containing information on 125 matches of the 2016–2017 UEFA Champions League, involving 32 among the best European teams. From our results, shots on target, corners, and such passing network indicators are the main determinants of the considered football outcomes. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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