Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America

Autor: Matheus S. Lima-Ribeiro, Natália Carneiro Lacerda dos Santos, Bia de Arruda Almeida, Luiz Carlos Gomes, Fernanda A. S. Cassemiro, Barbara C.G. Gimenez, Taise Miranda Lopes, Paulo C. L. Sales, Dayani Bailly, José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho, Guilherme Okuda Landgraf, Angelo Antonio Agostinho, Thiago F. Rangel
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
0106 biological sciences
Atmospheric Science
Invasive Species
Marine and Aquatic Sciences
lcsh:Medicine
Introduced species
Aquaculture
01 natural sciences
Geographical locations
Invasive species
lcsh:Science
Conservation Science
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
Ecology
biology
Amazon rainforest
Fishes
Agriculture
Freshwater Fish
Geography
Vertebrates
Freshwater fish
Fish Farming
Ecological Niches
Characiformes
Research Article
Freshwater Environments
Conservation of Natural Resources
Climate Change
Fisheries
Climate change
010603 evolutionary biology
Rivers
Species Colonization
Effects of global warming
Animals
Ecosystem
business.industry
010604 marine biology & hydrobiology
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
lcsh:R
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Aquatic Environments
Models
Theoretical
South America
Bodies of Water
biology.organism_classification
Environmental niche modelling
Fishery
Earth Sciences
lcsh:Q
People and places
Introduced Species
business
Animal Distribution
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 12, Iss 6, p e0179684 (2017)
PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179684
Popis: Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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