Anticipating cascading effects of extreme precipitation with pathway schemes - Three case studies from Europe

Autor: Estíbaliz Gascón, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Mario Rohrer, Daniel Sempere-Torres, Markus Stoffel, Simone Schauwecker, Manfred Schwarb, Shinju Park, Claudia Vitolo
Přispěvatelé: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. CRAHI - Centre de Recerca Aplicada en Hidrometeorologia
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Rain
Cascading effects
010501 environmental sciences
Hazard anticipation
01 natural sciences
Critical infrastructure
Humans
Precipitation
lcsh:Environmental sciences
Precipitation forecast
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
General Environmental Science
ddc:333.7-333.9
lcsh:GE1-350
Extreme precipitation
Inundacions -- Avaluació del risc
Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC]
business.industry
Event (computing)
Environmental resource management
Hazard
Term (time)
Floods--Risk assessment
Europe
Freezing rain
13. Climate action
Quantitative precipitation forecast
Precipitation types
Environmental science
Extreme precipitation
Cascading effects
Hazard anticipation
Precipitation forecast
business
Extreme precipitation Cascading effects Hazard anticipation Precipitation forecast
Zdroj: Environment International
UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Environment International, Vol 127, Iss, Pp 291-304 (2019)
Environment international, vol. 127, pp. 291-304
Environment International, Vol. 127 (2019) pp. 291-304
Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname
ISSN: 0160-4120
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.072
Popis: Extreme precipitation events with high local precipitation intensities, heavy snowfall or extensive freezing rain can have devastating impacts on society and economy. Not only is the quantitative forecast of such events sometimes difficult and associated with large uncertainties, also are the potential consequences highly complex and challenging to predict. It is thus a demanding task to anticipate or nowcast the impacts of extreme precipitation, even more so in situations where human lives or critical infrastructure might be at risk.In recent years, the term “cascading effects” has been increasingly used to describe events in which an initial trigger leads to a sequence of consequences with significant magnitude. We here analyze three examples for different precipitation types where the initial triggering event generated a cascade of events and impacts, namely a convective precipitation event in the Swiss Prealps, a freezing rain in Slovenia, and a heavy snowfall episode in Catalonia. With the aim to improve process understanding of complex precipitation-triggered events, we assess the prediction of the selected events and analyze the cascading effects that caused diverse impacts. To this end, we use a framework of cascading effects which should ultimately allow the development of a better design risk assessment and management strategies.Our findings confirm that damage of extreme precipitation events is clearly related to the knowledge of potential cascading effects. Major challenges of predicting cascading effects are the high complexity, the interdependencies and the increasing uncertainty along the cascade. We propose a framework for cascading effects including two approaches: (i) one to analyze cascading effects during past extreme precipitation events, which then serves as a basis for a (ii) more generalized approach to increase the preparedness level of operational services before and during future extreme precipitation events and to anticipate potential cascading effects of extreme precipitation. Both approaches are based on pathway schemes that can be used in addition to numerical models or hazard maps to analyze and predict potential cascading effects, but also as training tools. Keywords: Extreme precipitation, Cascading effects, Hazard anticipation, Precipitation forecast
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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