Fitting Markovian binary trees using global and individual demographic data

Autor: Melanie Massaro, Sophie Hautphenne, Katharine Turner
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Male
FOS: Computer and information sciences
0106 biological sciences
0301 basic medicine
bird
Population Dynamics
Population
Markov process
non-linear regression
Statistics - Applications
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Birds
models
03 medical and health sciences
symbols.namesake
death
Statistics
Animals
Quantitative Biology::Populations and Evolution
Applications (stat.AP)
14. Life underwater
Markovian arrival process
Mortality
maximum likelihood
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
education
petroica traversi
Ecology
Evolution
Behavior and Systematics
Demography
Mathematics
Branching process
Likelihood Functions
education.field_of_study
markov process
Binary tree
Markov chain
Reproduction
Endangered Species
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
Markov Chains
Regression
branching process
030104 developmental biology
FOS: Biological sciences
symbols
Female
Nonlinear regression
Zdroj: Theoretical Population Biology. 128:39-50
ISSN: 0040-5809
DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.04.007
Popis: We consider a class of continuous-time branching processes called Markovian binary trees (MBTs), in which the individuals lifetime and reproduction epochs are modelled using a transient Markovian arrival process (TMAP). We develop methods for estimating the parameters of the TMAP by using either age-specific averages of reproduction and mortality rates, or age-specific individual demographic data. Depending on the degree of detail of the available information, we follow a weighted non-linear regression or a maximum likelihood approach. We discuss several criteria to determine the optimal number of states in the underlying TMAP. Our results improve the fit of an existing MBT model for human demography, and provide insights for the future conservation management of the threatened Chatham Island black robin population. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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