A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
| Autor: | Stavros G. Stavrinides, Myron Kampitakis, Stelios M. Potirakis, Rodrigo Picos, Pericles Papadopoulos, M. P. Hanias, Yiannis Contoyiannis |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Dynamical systems theory Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Pneumonia Viral humanos lcsh:Medicine pandemias Total population 01 natural sciences Article 010305 fluids & plasmas model of the infection diffusion Betacoronavirus self-organizing systems 0103 physical sciences Econometrics Humans 010306 general physics Pandemics lattice simulations Self-organization física SARS-CoV-2 Physics lcsh:R Autocorrelation Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health COVID-19 neumonía Pneumonia Physics based Models Theoretical Europe preventive measures epidemiology Coronavirus Infections infecciones por Coronavirus |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume 17 Issue 18 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 17, Iss 6525, p 6525 (2020) |
| Popis: | The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model&rsquo s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease the successful case of Greece and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general&mdash even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19&mdash further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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