Contributions of GCM/RCM Uncertainty in Ensemble Dynamical Downscaling for Precipitation in East Asian Summer Monsoon Season
| Autor: | Hiroyuki Kusaka, Asuka Suzuki-Parker, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Koji Dairaku, Suryun Ham, Izuru Takayabu |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Climatology 0208 environmental biotechnology East asian summer monsoon Environmental science GCM transcription factors 02 engineering and technology Precipitation 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Downscaling |
| Zdroj: | SOLA. 14:97-104 |
| ISSN: | 1349-6476 |
| Popis: | Targeting to East Asian summer monsoon for the first time, this study presents an assessment of projection uncertainty in ensemble dynamical downscaling (DDS) simulations. Based on 12-member DDS simulations comprised of three global climate models (GCMs) and four regional climate models (RCMs), we evaluate contributions of GCM and RCM uncertainty to the total uncertainty of summer-time precipitation projections around Japan. Our results show that contribution of RCM uncertainty can be comparable to that of GCM uncertainty in magnitudes. This finding draws a distinction from the past studies showing the dominance of GCM uncertainty. Most notably, our results show that RCM uncertainty for number of precipitating days appears around and over the land. RCM uncertainty for precipitation amounts also shows a dependence on topography but to a lessor degree. These RCM uncertainty characteristics are potentially linked to the difference in various RCM configurations such as physics schemes and model topography. In contrast, GCM uncertainty mostly appears over the ocean, which can be attributed to the difference in the GCM's future projections of East Asian summer monsoon. Our finding may be of an importance for water disaster and water resource management with DDS. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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