Targeting net climate benefits by wood utilization in Finland: Participatory backcasting combined with quantitative scenario exploration
| Autor: | Antti Kilpeläinen, Teppo Hujala, Lauri Hetemäki, Elias Hurmekoski, Pekka Leskinen, Henrik Heräjärvi, Venla Wallius, Janni Kunttu, Tanja Myllyviita |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Sociology and Political Science Primary energy elinkaariarviointi metsäteollisuus vaihtoehdot market structure General Decision Sciences Climate change 010501 environmental sciences Development uusiutuvat luonnonvarat 01 natural sciences 7. Clean energy puutuotteet 12. Responsible consumption Market structure backcasting substitution markkinat (taloustiede) Production (economics) Business and International Management 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 2. Zero hunger General Social Sciences puuteollisuus 15. Life on land Environmental economics ilmastonmuutokset skenaariot wood-based products scenario Product (business) Climate change mitigation climate change kasvihuonekaasut 13. Climate action Biofuel 8. Economic growth päästöt Business mallit (mallintaminen) korvaavuus Backcasting kierrätys puu (luonnonmateriaalit) |
| Popis: | Highlights • Wood-based substitution benefits are likely to decrease over time • Carbon residence has more importance in the future as an indicator • Energy use of wood should be reduced to increase climate benefits • Global agreement is needed to fund clean technologies and reduce fossil ones To obtain net climate benefits from intensified forest utilization in the short-term, the substitution impact of wood harvesting and increased carbon stocks of wood-based products should be higher than the forest carbon stock loss. However, the product specific substitution impacts change dynamically over time along with technological development, and long-term climate change mitigation strategies need to consider this, as well as the market forces. We identified future pathways enabling globally market viable environments for wood utilization scenarios in Finland resulting in net climate benefits in 2050. We I) indicated substitution impacts in 2050 applying future-oriented parameter modification based on LCA, and developed quantitative target scenarios by altering wood-based product portfolios to achieve required substitution, and II) identified pathways enabling scenarios by applying participatory backcasting. In the scenarios, a major shift from primary energy use to high added-value products including textiles, chemicals, composites and advanced biofuels, or long-lifetime construction products was needed and more lifecycles for wood products by recycling were required. The actions enabling market viable environment focused on the global level policies and consumer perceptions, while actions locally were limited and current production technology development oriented. We recommend multi-target backcasting together with LCA to analyse more synergies and trade-offs. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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