Implications to the electricity system of Paraguay of different demand scenarios and export prices to Brazil
| Autor: | Mark Howells, Carlos Centurion, Eunice Ramos, Thomas Alfstad, Eduardo Ortigoza, Ioannis Pappis, Pedro E. Gardel-Sotomayor, Silvia Ulloa |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Technology
Economics and Econometrics BARGAINING POWER Latin Americans Energy & Fuels Power station Natural resource economics 020209 energy HYDROPOWER Investment outlook 02 engineering and technology Demand scenarios 010501 environmental sciences OSEMOSYS SAMBA 01 natural sciences Energy planning Cost-optimization 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Per capita Project finance SUPPLY SECTOR Hydropower 0105 earth and related environmental sciences BOTTOM-UP Consumption (economics) Original Paper Science & Technology business.industry Investment (macroeconomics) MODEL BASE 0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering General Energy Electricity generation Modeling and Simulation ENERGY-POLICY Electricity business OSeMOSYS INTEGRATION |
| Zdroj: | Energy Systems |
| ISSN: | 1868-3975 1868-3967 |
| Popis: | Paraguay's power system is based entirely on hydropower. It serves as the largest net electricity exporter in Latin America. Nonetheless, the country´s electricity consumption per capita is one of the lowest in the world and the transmission and distribution network has one of the highest losses in Latin America. This paper presents an electricity expansion investment outlook (2018–2040) for Paraguay using OSeMOSYS, analyzing three electricity demand scenarios under different electricity export prices to Brazil. The study identifies the least-cost power generation mix, future investments and the financial requirements to meet the needs of different demand scenarios. We find that Paraguay will need to invest in hydropower plants, by mainly expanding the capacity of Yacyreta to cover its electricity needs and sustain national electricity exports levels. In the High demand scenario, where the electricity demand could approximately double by 2040, the country's overall electricity exports decrease by 50% compared to the Reference scenario. Based on the different scenarios examined, the government spends approximately 18.3–31.2 billion USD on power plant investments for the period 2018–2040 to cover future electricity demand. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development pathways in the country. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12667-020-00420-w. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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