Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared
| Autor: | Joana Portugal-Pereira, Renée van Diemen, Jim Skea, Alaa Al Khourdajie |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
15 Commerce
Management Tourism and Services Primary energy 020209 energy 05 social sciences Energy mix 02 engineering and technology Benchmarking Environmental economics Work (electrical) 10 Technology Management of Technology and Innovation Science Studies 0502 economics and business 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Normative Science studies Business and International Management Adaptation (computer science) Futures contract 14 Economics 050203 business & management Applied Psychology |
| Zdroj: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 168:120736 |
| ISSN: | 0040-1625 |
| Popis: | This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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