Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach
| Autor: | Filippo Petroni, Guglielmo D'Amico, Raimondo Manca, Chiara Corini, Flavio Prattico |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
lcsh:Risk in industry. Risk management Markov process 01 natural sciences lcsh:TD1-1066 010104 statistics & probability symbols.namesake Statistics 0101 mathematics Tornadoes modelling semi-Markov process reward process lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science Statistical hypothesis testing lcsh:GE1-350 Markov chain Stochastic process Fujita scale Statistical model Probability and statistics lcsh:HD61 Geography symbols General Earth and Planetary Sciences Tornado |
| Zdroj: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk, Vol 7, Iss 5, Pp 1600-1609 (2016) |
| ISSN: | 1947-5713 1947-5705 |
| Popis: | We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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