A High‐Resolution National‐Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model
| Autor: | Florian Pappenberger, Nathan R. Swain, Cédric H. David, Daniel P. Ames, Ervin Zsoter, Nawajish Sayeed Noman, Deng Ding, Alan D. Snow, Norman Jones, Scott D. Christensen, E. James Nelson |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Global Forecast System
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology CI‐WATER forecast 0208 environmental biotechnology Flood forecasting CondorPy 02 engineering and technology flood prediction 01 natural sciences ECMWF HTCondor Routing (hydrology) GloFAS Streamflow streamflow prediction 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology RAPID Ecology Warning system Flood myth Technical Paper Featured Collection: Open Water Data Initiative Sandra Fox Daniel P. Ames David Blodgett Jack Hampson and Kenneth J. Lanfear ‐ Guest Editors NFIE 6. Clean water 020801 environmental engineering 13. Climate action Climatology Environmental science Scale (map) Surface runoff Tethys Platform |
| Zdroj: | Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
| ISSN: | 1752-1688 1093-474X |
| DOI: | 10.1111/1752-1688.12434 |
| Popis: | Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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