Development of a nomogram to predict overall survival among non-metastatic breast cancer patients in China: a retrospective multicenter study
| Autor: | Pei-Xian Chen, Feng-Tao Liu, Qian Li, Feng-Xi Su, Zhu Liling, Guo-Lin Ye, Zi-Hao Pan, Min Peng, Shunrong Li, Chen Kai, Mu Sheng Zeng, Qiang Liu, Er-Wei Song |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Oncology medicine.medical_specialty Receiver operating characteristic business.industry lcsh:R Area under the curve Cancer lcsh:Medicine Nomogram medicine.disease 03 medical and health sciences 030104 developmental biology 0302 clinical medicine Breast cancer medicine.anatomical_structure lcsh:Biology (General) 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Internal medicine Medicine T-stage Population study business Lymph node lcsh:QH301-705.5 |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Bio-X Research, Vol 1, Iss 1, Pp 18-24 (2018) |
| ISSN: | 2577-3585 2096-5672 |
| Popis: | The accurate prediction of overall survival (OS) is important in clinical decision-making for breast cancer treatment. We developed a model to predict the OS of non-metastatic breast cancer patients in China. This multicenter study included 1844 non-metastatic breast cancer patients who underwent breast cancer surgery between January 2009 and December 2011 in 3 tertiary teaching hospitals in China. Data were collected retrospectively from the database of each hospital. We used univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses to screen for predictors. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort (from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital [SYSMH]), externally validated in 2 validation cohorts (from the First People’s Hospital of Foshan [FPHF] and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYUCC)), and compared with CancerMath, a mathematical-based model. We used Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and calibration plots to assess the models. At median follow-ups of 65.9, 68.6, and 66.2 months, the 5-year OS rates were 93.0%, 86.7%, and 91.0% in the SYSMH, FPHF, and SYUCC cohorts, respectively. We identified age, T stage, lymph node status, estrogen receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 statuses as significant prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed and externally validated in the FPHF (area under the curve= 0.74) and SYUCC (area under the curve= 0.77) cohorts. Calibration plots showed that the predicted OS was consistent with the actual OS. The nomogram outperformed CancerMath in our study population. In summary, we developed a nomogram to predict survival among non-metastatic breast cancer patientsin China. This nomogram is superior to the CancerMath model in Chinese populations. Key words: breast cancer; nomogram; overall survival; prediction |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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