The transmission of business cycles: Lessons from the 2004 enlargement of the EU and the adoption of the euro
| Autor: | Fabien Rondeau, Hoang Sang Nguyen |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Centre de recherche en économie et management (CREM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rennes (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
050204 development studies Economics Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) law.invention Near-VAR Trade Spillovers Spillover effect law 0502 economics and business Business cycle Economics media_common.cataloged_instance Resizing European Union 050207 economics European union media_common OCA Enlargement Euro 05 social sciences International economics [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Eastern european Transmission (mechanics) Currency 8. Economic growth |
| Zdroj: | Economics of Transition and Institutional Change Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, Wiley Online Library, 2019, 27 (3), pp.729-743. ⟨10.1111/ecot.12212⟩ Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2019, 27 (3), pp.729-743. ⟨10.1111/ecot.12212⟩ |
| ISSN: | 2577-6983 |
| Popis: | International audience; This paper evaluates macroeconomic interdependencies of seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with the Euro Area (EA) through trade relationship. We estimate a near-VAR model and we simulate responses of activity in those CEECs to output shocks for twelve former members of the EA before and after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union (EU). During both periods, empirical results show that spillover effects come through the main economies of the EA: Germany, France and Italy. Furthermore, CEECs are more responsive to output shocks in the EA after 2004 than before (3.3 times larger on average). Increases in spillover effects are larger for the three CEECs that adopted the Euro early (Slovenia, Slovakia, and Estonia) than the other CEECs (4.9 versus 2.1) but without higher trade intensity with the EA (1.07 versus 1.12). Our results show that trade effects are positive inside the same currency area but negative for the CEECs without the euro. JEL Classifications: F13, F15, F45 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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