How to Poll Runoff Elections
| Autor: | Sascha Göbel, Romain Lachat, Peter Selb |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Hydrology
History Sociology and Political Science Communication 05 social sciences General Social Sciences 01 natural sciences 0506 political science 010104 statistics & probability History and Philosophy of Science Political science ddc:320 050602 political science & public administration 0101 mathematics Surface runoff |
| Zdroj: | Public Opinion Quarterly. 84:776-787 |
| ISSN: | 1537-5331 0033-362X |
| DOI: | 10.1093/poq/nfaa039 |
| Popis: | We present a polling strategy to predict and analyze runoff elections using the 2017 French presidential race as an empirical case. This strategy employs rejective probability sampling to identify a small sample of polling stations that is balanced with respect to past election results. We then survey the voters’ candidate evaluations in first-round exit polls. We poststratify the voter sample to first-round election returns to account for nonresponse and coverage issues, and impute missing candidate evaluations to emulate campaign learning. Next, the votes for eliminated competitors are redistributed according to their supporters’ lower-order preferences. Finally, the predictions are validated against official results and other polls. We end with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of this approach. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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