Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate
| Autor: | R. Lazin, Mariam Khanam, Marika Koukoula, Xinyi Shen, Giulia Sofia, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
0208 environmental biotechnology Storm surge 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences lcsh:TD1-1066 Data assimilation Precipitation lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 Flood myth Emergency management business.industry Flooding (psychology) lcsh:QE1-996.5 lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation 020801 environmental engineering Current (stream) lcsh:Geology lcsh:G Climatology Weather Research and Forecasting Model General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science business |
| Zdroj: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 587-605 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 1684-9981 1561-8633 |
| Popis: | The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damage due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for atmospheric forcing, sea-level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding of selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing the risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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