Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock
| Autor: | James E. Truscott, Neil M. Ferguson, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Lucy Snow, Javier Guitian, Azra C. Ghani, Irina Chis-Ster, Tini Garske, John W. Wilesmith |
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| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: |
Veterinary medicine
Population Culling Biology medicine.disease_cause General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Poultry law.invention Disease Outbreaks law Environmental health medicine Animals education General Environmental Science education.field_of_study General Immunology and Microbiology Influenza A Virus H5N1 Subtype Risk of infection Vaccination Outbreak General Medicine Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 United Kingdom Transmission (mechanics) Influenza in Birds Flock General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings. Biological sciences. 274(1623) |
| ISSN: | 0962-8452 |
| Popis: | The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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