Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner

Autor: Steven Zhixiang Zhou, Laurence Randrianasolo, Cécile Viboud, Wladimir J. Alonso, Jean-Michel Heraud, Julia Guillebaud, Norosoa Harline Razanajatovo, Arnaud Orelle
Přispěvatelé: National Institutes of Health [Bethesda] (NIH), Unité de Virologie [Antananarivo, Madagascar] (IPM), Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP)-Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Unité d'Epidémiologie [Antananarivo, Madagascar] (IPM)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Time Factors
Epidemiology
Climate
viruses
MESH: Influenza Vaccines
MESH: Madagascar
Influenza A Virus
H1N1 Subtype
0302 clinical medicine
[SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases
030212 general & internal medicine
MESH: Travel
MESH: Influenza B virus
Travel
0303 health sciences
Ecology
seasonality
MESH: Influenza
Human
virus diseases
MESH: Climate
Infectious Diseases
Geography
Influenza Vaccines
MESH: Sentinel Surveillance
Seasons
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
MESH: Influenza A Virus
H3N2 Subtype
MESH: Influenza A Virus
H1N1 Subtype
03 medical and health sciences
Influenza
Human
Situated
medicine
Madagascar
Humans
Epidemics
viral migration
population connectivity
MESH: Epidemics
030304 developmental biology
MESH: Humans
Influenza A Virus
H3N2 Subtype
MESH: Time Factors
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Tropics
Original Articles
biochemical phenomena
metabolism
and nutrition
Seasonality
medicine.disease
Virology
Influenza
Influenza B virus
time series
Sentinel Surveillance
MESH: Seasons
Zdroj: Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Wiley Open Access, 2015, 9 (3), pp.101-109. ⟨10.1111/irv.12308⟩
ISSN: 1750-2640
1750-2659
DOI: 10.1111/irv.12308⟩
Popis: International audience; BACKGROUND:The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.OBJECTIVES:We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar.METHODS:We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period.RESULTS:Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak.CONCLUSIONS:The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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